The Afghanistan Context

The al-Qaida Movement - Status and Prospects

As discussed in the October briefing (The Afghanistan Decision), the Obama administration has gone ahead with a substantial increase in US forces in Afghanistan. The new deployments, which will be completed around the middle of 2010, will bring total US troop numbers in the country to about 100,000, by far the largest number since the war began over eight years ago. In addition to the US presence, coalition troops drawn mainly from NATO states number well over 30,000, with nearly a third of them contributed by the United Kingdom, which ended its troop deployments in southern Iraq six months ago.

Although the decision of the Obama administration to undertake a “surge” in Afghanistan was similar to that advocated by John McCain in the 2008 Presidential election, the Obama approach is different in two respects. One is that the increase in military deployments will be accompanied by further efforts to aid the civil development of the country, notwithstanding the severe problems of corruption and maladministration that are endemic to the Karzai government in Kabul. The other difference is that President Bush and Senator McCain both approached the war in Afghanistan from the perspective that a comprehensive victory over the Taliban and other paramilitaries was essential, whereas the Obama administration believes that negotiation and even compromise with some elements of the Taliban will be necessary.....>>>>>